pages tagged news http://meng6net.localhost/tag/news/ <p><small>Copyright © 2005-2020 by <code>Meng Lu &lt;lumeng3@gmail.com&gt;</code></small></p> Meng Lu's home page ikiwiki Tue, 16 May 2017 23:59:39 +0000 Analysis of short-term performance improvement of top swimmers in 400m individual medley http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/ http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/ data science news olympics project statistics Tue, 16 May 2017 23:59:39 +0000 2017-05-16T23:59:39Z <p>Meng Lu &lt;<a href= "mailto:lumeng3@gmail.com">lumeng3@gmail.com</a>&gt;<br /> Aug. 7, 2012</p> <p>16-year-old Chinese swimmer Ye Shiwen swam more than 5 seconds faster than her personal best in women's 400m individual medley (IM) in London 2012 Olympics, winning her a gold medal. This performance received <a href= "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ye_Shiwen#2012_Summer_Olympics">high exposure to media and mixed comments, even controversy</a>. For example, the prestigious scientific magazine Nature published a news report titled "Why great Olympic feats raise suspicions -- 'Performance profiling' could help to dispel doubts" [1] and immediately raised great attention and a great number of reader comments. In the following, I analyze short-term performance increase of top swimmers in 400m IM during 2011 and 2012, and attempt to contrast that to Ye Shiwen's, using <a href= "http://www.fina.org">Fédération Internationale de Natation</a> (http://www.fina.org) <a href= "http://www.fina.org/H2O/index.php?option=com_wrapper&amp;view=wrapper&amp;Itemid=805"> data</a> [2]. I hope to bring some data perspective to the issue.</p> <h2>Data</h2> <p>The FINA 40m IM <a href= "http://www.fina.org/H2O/index.php?option=com_wrapper&amp;view=wrapper&amp;Itemid=805"> data sets</a> contains the 300 fastest race times recorded in 2011 and 2012 respectively, and for male and female swimmers, respectively. It turns out there are 195 female and 191 male swimmers who have both a 2011 time and a 2012 time, which will be used in the following analysis.</p> <p>FINA data has two pool course sizes: long course (LC) and short course (SC) however the latter is different from the Olympic standard pool size. We'll include SC times in the analysis for comparison, but will keep it separate from LC times.</p> <p>Here is the first 10 rows from the data sets for "women's 400m IM, LC":</p> <table class="datatable"> <thead> <tr> <th>time</th> <th>name</th> <th>country</th> <th>event date</th> <th>event</th> <th>event city</th> <th>event country</th> <th>qualify for</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>4:28.43</td> <td>Ye, Shiwen</td> <td>CHN</td> <td>28/07/2012</td> <td>2012 Olympic Games</td> <td>London</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:31.27</td> <td>Beisel, Elizabeth</td> <td>USA</td> <td>28/07/2012</td> <td>2012 Olympic Games</td> <td>London</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:32.20</td> <td>Zheng, Rongrong</td> <td>CHN</td> <td>08/01/2012</td> <td>National Spring Championships2 2012</td> <td>Nanning</td> <td>CHN</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:32.67</td> <td>Miley, Hannah</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>03/03/2012</td> <td>British Gas Swimming Champs 2012</td> <td>London</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:32.83</td> <td>Hosszu, Katinka</td> <td>HUN</td> <td>29/03/2012</td> <td>2012 Indianapolis Grand Prix</td> <td>Indianapolis</td> <td>USA</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:32.91</td> <td>Li, Xuanxu</td> <td>CHN</td> <td>28/07/2012</td> <td>2012 Olympic Games</td> <td>London</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:33.45</td> <td>Rice, Stephanie</td> <td>AUS</td> <td>15/03/2012</td> <td>2012 EnergyAustralia Swimming</td> <td>Adelaide</td> <td>AUS</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:33.91</td> <td>Belmonte Garcia, Mireia</td> <td>ESP</td> <td>29/03/2012</td> <td>Spanish Open Spring Swimming Championships</td> <td>Malaga</td> <td>ESP</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:34.48</td> <td>Leverenz, Caitlin</td> <td>USA</td> <td>25/06/2012</td> <td>USA Olympic Team Trials</td> <td>Omaha</td> <td>USA</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:35.68</td> <td>Jakabos, Zsuzsanna</td> <td>HUN</td> <td>21/05/2012</td> <td>European Swimming Championships</td> <td>Debrecen</td> <td>HUN</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:36.21</td> <td>Evans, Blair</td> <td>AUS</td> <td>27/01/2012</td> <td>South Australian State Open Championships</td> <td>Adelaide</td> <td>AUS</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:36.64</td> <td>Otsuka, Miyu</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>02/04/2012</td> <td>2012 Japan National Championships</td> <td>Tokyo</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4:37.48</td> <td>Willmott, Aimee</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>03/03/2012</td> <td>British Gas Swimming Champs 2012</td> <td>London</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>OQT</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><a href= "http://meng6net.localhost/data/FINA_swimming_data_2012_400m_IM_female_LC_sample.dsv">Direct data download</a></p> <p>(I'll zip up the cleaned data and host it on Google Drive soon.)</p> <h2>Variables</h2> <p>We define the following variables to simplify our discussion of the analysis:</p> <ul> <li><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/6f122f7506b976f9e706f8be26adf231.png" alt="t_{2011}" class="teximg" />: swimmer's best 400m IM time in 2011</li> <li><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/daf352a58d6b546067a39066ed1a8812.png" alt="t_{2012}" class="teximg" />: swimmer's best 400m IM time in 2012</li> <li><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/5e634f9940a6b9ccc36d3bf34f57607f.png" alt="\tau_{2011}" class="teximg" />: date when <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/6f122f7506b976f9e706f8be26adf231.png" alt="t_{2011}" class="teximg" /> is achieved</li> <li><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/31f63c96162b3c29f3aa192dd4dd835a.png" alt="\tau_{2012}" class="teximg" />: date when <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/daf352a58d6b546067a39066ed1a8812.png" alt="t_{2012}" class="teximg" /> is achieved</li> </ul> <p>and compute several derived quantities that can be used as swimmer's performance improvement indicators:</p> <ul> <li> <p><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/56addf3d6f4f7ac1fc1410acad5cc480.png" alt="dt = t_{2011} - t_{2012}" class="teximg" />: absolute improvement (unit: second); it should be positive if 2012 performance is faster than that of 2011;</p> </li> <li> <p><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/e5890baf1d3a26807cd862933e408b43.png" alt="\delta t = \left(t_{2011}-t_{2012}\right)/t_{2011}" class= "teximg" />: relative improvement (unit: %)</p> </li> <li> <p><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/0db6cc04ccea278a74bd1a01eac02d26.png" alt= "\delta t' = \left(t_{2011} - t_{2012} \right)/\left( t_{2011} \left( \tau_{2012} - \tau_{2011} \right) \right)" class="teximg" />: time rate of relative improvement (unit: %/day)</p> </li> </ul> <p>Ye's performance improvement in 400m IM during 2011-2012 is</p> <ul> <li> <p><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/04f6a2c198eca7c42155098c6116597a.png" alt="dt = 5.23~\mathrm{sec}" class="teximg" /></p> </li> <li> <p><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/c6345a88204a960ccf83d10061eb8181.png" alt="\delta t = 1.91\%" class="teximg" /></p> </li> <li> <p><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/3e7d6afd8bd184c1bbe769a4f468e650.png" alt="\delta t' = 0.0067\%/\mathrm{day}" class="teximg" /></p> </li> </ul> <h2>Analysis</h2> <h3>Distribution of performance improvement indicators</h3> <p>We examine the distributions of three performance improvement indicators <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/a0f7e29f219a0fcf2517db9a417e64ab.png" alt="dt" class="teximg" />, <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/a938f64e4978de8d515a65f34823b376.png" alt="\delta t" class="teximg" />, and <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/b759049e2e7e0d944075bc4d00cfc641.png" alt="\delta t'" class="teximg" /> in histograms and quantile plots:</p> <p><img src="http://meng6.net/pages/images/swimming_data/dt.png" alt="dt.png" /> <img src= "http://meng6.net/pages/images/swimming_data/deltat.png" alt= "deltat.png" /> <img src= "http://meng6.net/pages/images/swimming_data/deltatprime.png" alt= "deltatprime.png" /></p> <p>The distribution of <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/a938f64e4978de8d515a65f34823b376.png" alt="\delta t" class="teximg" /> is closest to a normal distribution, which has standard deviation 0.379 sec and mean 3.45 sec. Ye Shiwen's <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/f75f345e9fd8e0d3b9c5347eb7dff123.png" alt="\delta t = 5.23" class="teximg" /> sec is at 1.41 sigma. She is in the top 8% highest relative performance improvement.</p> <p>One can compare Ye to all 400m IM swimmers in the <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/9b99bb4e42d466cf7d0a0e47d9a519fc.png" alt="\left(t_{2011}, t_{2012}\right)" class="teximg" /> space:</p> <p><img src= "http://meng6.net/pages/images/swimming_data/t2011-t2012.png" alt= "t2011-t2012.png" /></p> <p>A few comments:</p> <ul> <li> <p>The sample points are approximately distributed along the diagonal, which likely suggests that for the majority top swimmers, there is no systematic improvement within a short time window &lt; 2 years. So dividing the performance improvment (<img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/a938f64e4978de8d515a65f34823b376.png" alt="\delta t" class="teximg" /> or <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/a0f7e29f219a0fcf2517db9a417e64ab.png" alt="dt" class="teximg" />) by time (<img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/42fad965ba7dfb7e60ef99fc8a717018.png" alt="d\tau" class="teximg" />) is not terribly relevant as data doesn't suggest such trend.</p> </li> <li> <p>The sample also obviously seperates into two categories: male and female. Although, the distribution of the two categories seem similar up to a shift of their center. (More quantitative study is due on this.) So it is intriguing to shift and combine the two categories and study the shape characteristics of the distribution for the combined sample.</p> </li> <li> <p>Interestingly but not surprisingly, Ye is at the relatively unique place that her 2011 and 2012 best performance <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/c4896188b51b92fb441e53c4c90aa225.png" alt="t_{2011} = 4:33.66" class="teximg" /> sec and <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/4a6f26169aaef8f9bc5fcc67c5c6bb64.png" alt="t_{2012} = 4:28.43" class="teximg" /> sec are both in between majority male and female swimmers. Therefore it is non-trivial to compare her with either the majority of male swimmers or the female ones. But this might not be exactly surprising, given that she's the world's No. 1 <em>female</em> in this event.</p> </li> <li> <p>The SC times enjoy a greater performance gain and lies below the diagonal. A short course pool might mean improvement on the pool-end technique can significantly contribute to the overall time improvement. (Just a guess though!)</p> </li> <li> <p>It seems the more of the top female and male swimmers tend to have a performance increase as compared to others within same sex category, as the lower left corner of each sex category slightly bends below the diagonal.</p> </li> <li> <p>Similarly, the swimmers with worst 2011 best performance <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/6f122f7506b976f9e706f8be26adf231.png" alt="t_{2011}" class="teximg" /> tend to have performance improvement. This is probably simply because they have more room/potential for improvement compared to the best of the best.</p> </li> <li> <p>There seem to be a higher fraction of male swimmers who gain a better best performance in 2012 than that of female swimmers. (Visually, there are more squares under the diagnol than dots.)</p> </li> </ul> <p>One can also plot the performance improvement indicators against 2011 best performance <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/6f122f7506b976f9e706f8be26adf231.png" alt="t_{2011}" class="teximg" /> and the period of time <img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/42fad965ba7dfb7e60ef99fc8a717018.png" alt="d\tau" class="teximg" /> in between 2011 and 2012 best performances to see some of these trends:</p> <p><img src= "http://meng6.net/pages/images/swimming_data/improvment-t2011-dtau.png" alt="improvment-t2011-dtau.png" /></p> <h3>Sub-sample of great performance improvers</h3> <p>To select a subsample of performance improvers to compare with Ye's significant performance improvement in London 2012 Olympics, one can select out swimmers who has at least one of the three performance improvement indicator better than 85% of that of Ye's. We also restrict to "LC" which is the pool size same as or closer to the Olympics swimming pool size. It turns out there are as many as 68 swimmers satisfying this condition. (See table in <a href= "http://meng6net.localhost/tag/news/#goodimprover">Section 4</a>). Furthermore, there are actually 21 of them who beat Ye Shiwen in all the three improvement indicators. (See table in <a href="http://meng6net.localhost/tag/news/#betterimprover">Section 5</a>).</p> <h3>Performance improvement v.s. age</h3> <p>It is also noticable that younger swimmers are more likely to gain performance improvement. Most great performance improvement are done by swimmers under 22. And Ye doesn't look terribly anomalous in gaining a high performance improvement among many other top teenage swimmers:</p> <p><img src= "http://meng6.net/pages/images/swimming_data/improvment-age.png" alt="improvment-age-height-mass.png" /></p> <h2><a id="goodimprover"></a>Swimmers who achieved good performance improvement in 400m IM over the 2011-2012 period</h2> <table class="datatable"> <thead> <tr> <th>name</th> <th>sex</th> <th>country</th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/42fad965ba7dfb7e60ef99fc8a717018.png" alt="d\tau" class="teximg" /></th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/6f122f7506b976f9e706f8be26adf231.png" alt="t_{2011}" class="teximg" /></th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/af8d360a561bdcaf6871965aa84ed849.png" alt="d t" class="teximg" /></th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/a938f64e4978de8d515a65f34823b376.png" alt="\delta t" class="teximg" /></th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/b759049e2e7e0d944075bc4d00cfc641.png" alt="\delta t'" class="teximg" /></th> <th>age</th> <th>height</th> <th>weight</th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/6f122f7506b976f9e706f8be26adf231.png" alt="t_{2011}" class="teximg" /></th> <th>2011 best performance</th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/daf352a58d6b546067a39066ed1a8812.png" alt="t_{2012}" class="teximg" /></th> <th>2012 best performance</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>Trombetti, Luisa</td> <td>F</td> <td>ITA</td> <td>81</td> <td>293.7</td> <td>5.9</td> <td></td> <td>0.0248</td> <td>19.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:53.70</td> <td>Italian Open Winter Nationals 2011</td> <td>4:47.80</td> <td>Italian National Spring Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Suggitt, Chris</td> <td>M</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>78</td> <td>269.81</td> <td>4.71</td> <td>1.74</td> <td>0.0223</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:29.81</td> <td>British Gas Swim Wales Winter</td> <td>4:25.10</td> <td>British Gas Swimming Champs 2012</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rousseau, Sebastien</td> <td>M</td> <td>RSA</td> <td>157</td> <td>266.95</td> <td>9.12</td> <td>3.41</td> <td>0.0217</td> <td>21.9</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>80</td> <td>4:26.95</td> <td>Minneapolis Grand Prix</td> <td>4:17.83</td> <td>Sa National Aquatic Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Meyer, Michael</td> <td>M</td> <td>RSA</td> <td>136</td> <td>263.87</td> <td>7.45</td> <td>2.82</td> <td>0.0207</td> <td>24.66</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:23.87</td> <td>Open Dutch Championships</td> <td>4:16.42</td> <td>Sa National Aquatic Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Caldwell, Katy</td> <td>F</td> <td>CAN</td> <td>49</td> <td>291.09</td> <td>2.83</td> <td>0.972</td> <td>0.0198</td> <td>18.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:51.09</td> <td>2011 Canada Cup</td> <td>4:48.26</td> <td>2012 Austin Grand Prix</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Chen, Xinyi</td> <td>F</td> <td>CHN</td> <td>167</td> <td>289.95</td> <td>8.94</td> <td>3.08</td> <td>0.0184</td> <td>14.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:49.95</td> <td>7th National City Games 2011</td> <td>4:41.01</td> <td>National Swimming Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Cuoghi, Alessandro</td> <td>M</td> <td>ITA</td> <td>81</td> <td>262.94</td> <td>3.58</td> <td>1.36</td> <td>0.0168</td> <td>21.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:22.94</td> <td>Italian Open Winter Nationals 2011</td> <td>4:19.36</td> <td>Italian National Spring Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Maestri, Riccardo</td> <td>M</td> <td>ITA</td> <td>81</td> <td>270.16</td> <td>2.92</td> <td>1.08</td> <td>0.0133</td> <td>18.3</td> <td>1.77</td> <td>74</td> <td>4:30.16</td> <td>Italian Open Winter Nationals 2011</td> <td>4:27.24</td> <td>Italian National Spring Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mann, Becca</td> <td>F</td> <td>USA</td> <td>227</td> <td>290.17</td> <td>8.56</td> <td>2.94</td> <td>0.0129</td> <td>14.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:50.17</td> <td>Minneapolis Grand Prix</td> <td>4:41.61</td> <td>USA Olympic Team Trials</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ventrone, Stefano</td> <td>M</td> <td>ITA</td> <td>81</td> <td>271.73</td> <td>2.8</td> <td>1.03</td> <td>0.0127</td> <td>21.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:31.73</td> <td>Italian Open Winter Nationals 2011</td> <td>4:28.93</td> <td>Italian National Spring Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>McMaster, Keryn</td> <td>F</td> <td>AUS</td> <td>121</td> <td>290.8</td> <td>4.43</td> <td>1.52</td> <td>0.0125</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:50.80</td> <td>2011 McDonald's Queenslands Championships</td> <td>4:46.37</td> <td>2012 Australian Age Champs</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mckeown, Taylor</td> <td>F</td> <td>AUS</td> <td>121</td> <td>289.32</td> <td>4.29</td> <td>1.48</td> <td>0.0122</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:49.32</td> <td>2011 McDonald's Queenslands Championships</td> <td>4:45.03</td> <td>2012 Australian Age Champs</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Seltenreich-Hodgson, Erika</td> <td>F</td> <td>CAN</td> <td>311</td> <td>294.3</td> <td>10.5</td> <td>3.56</td> <td>0.0114</td> <td>17.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:54.30</td> <td>2011 Canadian Age Group Championships</td> <td>4:43.80</td> <td>Mare Nostrum</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Berrada, Morad</td> <td>M</td> <td>MAR</td> <td>92</td> <td>268.27</td> <td>2.69</td> <td></td> <td>0.0108</td> <td>21.12</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:28.27</td> <td>Arab Games 2011</td> <td>4:25.58</td> <td>Elite French Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Coton, Quentin</td> <td>M</td> <td>FRA</td> <td>241</td> <td>268.85</td> <td>6.63</td> <td>2.46</td> <td>0.0102</td> <td>21.04</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:28.85</td> <td>Summer Nationals</td> <td>4:22.22</td> <td>Elite French Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Beraud, Romain</td> <td>M</td> <td>FRA</td> <td>241</td> <td>270.91</td> <td>6.53</td> <td>2.41</td> <td>0.01</td> <td>23.98</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:30.91</td> <td>Youth Senior Open Championships</td> <td>4:24.38</td> <td>Elite French Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tutumi, Takahiro</td> <td>M</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>213</td> <td>265.35</td> <td>5.47</td> <td>2.06</td> <td>0.00967</td> <td>19.9</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:25.35</td> <td>Japan Inter-College Swimming Competition</td> <td>4:19.88</td> <td>2012 Japan National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Siwicki, Breanne</td> <td>F</td> <td>CAN</td> <td>250</td> <td>293.79</td> <td>7.01</td> <td>2.38</td> <td>0.00954</td> <td>17.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:53.79</td> <td>Summer Nationals</td> <td>4:46.78</td> <td>2012 Canadian Olympic and Paralympic Trials</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Geni, Simone</td> <td>M</td> <td>ITA</td> <td>81</td> <td>269.98</td> <td>2.04</td> <td>0.755</td> <td>0.00932</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:29.98</td> <td>Italian Open Winter Nationals 2011</td> <td>4:27.94</td> <td>Italian National Spring Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gilmour, Tianni</td> <td>F</td> <td>AUS</td> <td>121</td> <td>295.65</td> <td>3.31</td> <td>1.11</td> <td>0.00925</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:55.65</td> <td>2011 McDonald's Queenslands Championships</td> <td>4:52.34</td> <td>2012 Australian Age Champs</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wedel, Kevin</td> <td>M</td> <td>GER</td> <td>309</td> <td>268.84</td> <td>7.64</td> <td>2.84</td> <td>0.00919</td> <td>18.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:28.84</td> <td>38th European Junior Championships 2011</td> <td>4:21.20</td> <td>124th German Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hosszu, Katinka</td> <td>F</td> <td>HUN</td> <td>116</td> <td>275.76</td> <td>2.93</td> <td>1.06</td> <td>0.00915</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:35.76</td> <td>UT Invite Long Course Time Tri</td> <td>4:32.83</td> <td>2012 Indianapolis Grand Prix</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Soerensen, Katrine</td> <td>F</td> <td>DEN</td> <td>245</td> <td>293.96</td> <td>6.58</td> <td>2.23</td> <td>0.00913</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:53.96</td> <td>Summer Nationals</td> <td>4:47.38</td> <td>Danish Open</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Donaldson, Mitchell</td> <td>M</td> <td>NZL</td> <td>107</td> <td>270.86</td> <td>2.62</td> <td>0.967</td> <td>0.00904</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:30.86</td> <td>2011 Auckland Age Groups Invit</td> <td>4:28.24</td> <td>State 2012 NZ Open Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mann, Karley</td> <td>F</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>356</td> <td>294.94</td> <td>9.3</td> <td>3.15</td> <td>0.00885</td> <td>18.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:54.94</td> <td>British Gas ASA Youth Champs 2011</td> <td>4:45.64</td> <td>British Gas Nat Youth MC Chmps 2012</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Glavnyk, Iryna</td> <td>F</td> <td>UKR</td> <td>238</td> <td>294.7</td> <td>6.21</td> <td>2.1</td> <td>0.00885</td> <td>16.24</td> <td>1.74</td> <td>58</td> <td>4:54.70</td> <td>38th European Junior Championships 2011</td> <td>4:48.49</td> <td>Open Ukrainian National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Pinto, Andreina</td> <td>F</td> <td>VEN</td> <td>181</td> <td>292.6</td> <td>4.58</td> <td>1.56</td> <td>0.00864</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:52.60</td> <td>XVIII National Games</td> <td>4:48.02</td> <td>2012 US Santa Clara International</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Lowe, Danielle</td> <td>F</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>356</td> <td>295.9</td> <td>9.1</td> <td>3.07</td> <td>0.00863</td> <td>17.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:55.90</td> <td>British Gas ASA Youth Champs 2011</td> <td>4:46.80</td> <td>British Gas Nat Youth MC Chmps 2012</td> </tr> <tr> <td>McKee, Anton Sveinn</td> <td>M</td> <td>ISL</td> <td>281</td> <td>270.15</td> <td>6.51</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>0.00857</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:30.15</td> <td>38th European Junior Championships 2011</td> <td>4:23.64</td> <td>Icelandic National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Persson, Erik</td> <td>M</td> <td>SWE</td> <td>260</td> <td>271.82</td> <td>5.86</td> <td>2.15</td> <td>0.00829</td> <td>18.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:31.82</td> <td>38th European Junior Championships 2011</td> <td>4:25.96</td> <td>Danish Open</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Quah, Zheng Wen</td> <td>M</td> <td>SIN</td> <td>122</td> <td>264.33</td> <td>2.63</td> <td>0.994</td> <td>0.00815</td> <td>15.85</td> <td>1.75</td> <td>57</td> <td>4:24.33</td> <td>XXVI Sea Games 2011</td> <td>4:21.70</td> <td>Singapore National Age Group Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Proud, Stephanie</td> <td>F</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>223</td> <td>288.31</td> <td>5.21</td> <td>1.8</td> <td>0.0081</td> <td>23.99</td> <td>1.68</td> <td>65</td> <td>4:48.31</td> <td>2011 FINA World Championships</td> <td>4:43.10</td> <td>British Gas Swimming Champs 2012</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kochetkova, Kristina</td> <td>F</td> <td>RUS</td> <td>261</td> <td>294.48</td> <td>6.08</td> <td>2.06</td> <td>0.00791</td> <td>19.52</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:54.48</td> <td>Russian National Swimming Cup</td> <td>4:48.40</td> <td>International Meeting</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kuhn, Sierra</td> <td>F</td> <td>USA</td> <td>231</td> <td>293.88</td> <td>5.17</td> <td>1.75</td> <td>0.00761</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:53.88</td> <td>2011 Conoco Phillips National Championships</td> <td>4:48.71</td> <td>2012 NCSA Junior National Swim</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Smiddy, Sam</td> <td>M</td> <td>USA</td> <td>234</td> <td>268.74</td> <td>4.58</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>0.00728</td> <td>18.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:28.74</td> <td>2011 Speedo Junior National Championships</td> <td>4:24.16</td> <td>2012 Indianapolis Grand Prix</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gyurta, Gergely</td> <td>M</td> <td>HUN</td> <td>281</td> <td>261.9</td> <td>5.34</td> <td>2.03</td> <td>0.00725</td> <td>20.903</td> <td>1.74</td> <td>68</td> <td>4:21.90</td> <td>CXIII Hungarian Swimming Championship</td> <td>4:16.56</td> <td>Open National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Aoki, Takehiro</td> <td>M</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>213</td> <td>268.36</td> <td>4.02</td> <td>1.49</td> <td>0.00703</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:28.36</td> <td>Japan Inter-College Swimming Competition</td> <td>4:24.34</td> <td>2012 Japan National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Schepers, Jan David</td> <td>M</td> <td>GER</td> <td>282</td> <td>264.71</td> <td>5.24</td> <td>1.97</td> <td>0.00701</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:24.71</td> <td>German Championships</td> <td>4:19.47</td> <td>Qualification for European Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Nguyen, Thi Anh Vien</td> <td>F</td> <td>VIE</td> <td>214</td> <td>294.65</td> <td>4.38</td> <td>1.48</td> <td>0.00694</td> <td>15.74</td> <td>1.72</td> <td>53</td> <td>4:54.65</td> <td>XXVI Sea Games 2011</td> <td>4:50.27</td> <td>1st SEA Swim Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tezuka, Yuki</td> <td>M</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>114</td> <td>261.93</td> <td>2.04</td> <td>0.778</td> <td>0.00683</td> <td>17.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:21.93</td> <td>2011 JPN Open</td> <td>4:19.89</td> <td>2012 Victorian Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mori, Yousuke</td> <td>M</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>213</td> <td>261.22</td> <td>3.79</td> <td>1.45</td> <td>0.00681</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:21.22</td> <td>Japan Inter-College Swimming Competition</td> <td>4:17.43</td> <td>2012 Japan National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderkaay, Peter</td> <td>M</td> <td>USA</td> <td>398</td> <td>263.28</td> <td>7.06</td> <td>2.68</td> <td>0.00673</td> <td>28.48</td> <td>1.93</td> <td>90</td> <td>4:23.28</td> <td>2011 Michigan Grand Prix</td> <td>4:16.22</td> <td>2012 NC Charlotte UltraSwim</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ye, Shiwen</td> <td>F</td> <td>CHN</td> <td>285</td> <td>273.66</td> <td>5.23</td> <td>1.91</td> <td>0.0067</td> <td>16.27</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>45</td> <td>4:33.66</td> <td>7th National City Games 2011</td> <td>4:28.43</td> <td>2012 Olympic Games</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Zhou, Min</td> <td>F</td> <td>CHN</td> <td>365</td> <td>284.69</td> <td>6.86</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>0.0066</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:44.69</td> <td>National Swimming Championships</td> <td>4:37.83</td> <td>National Swimming Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hersey, Kathleen</td> <td>F</td> <td>USA</td> <td>139</td> <td>286.03</td> <td>2.61</td> <td>0.912</td> <td>0.00656</td> <td>22.46</td> <td>1.8</td> <td>64</td> <td>4:46.03</td> <td>Minneapolis Grand Prix</td> <td>4:43.42</td> <td>2012 Indianapolis Grand Prix</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kuramatsu, Mako</td> <td>F</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>213</td> <td>292.16</td> <td>4.05</td> <td>1.38</td> <td>0.0065</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:52.16</td> <td>Japan Inter-College Swimming Competition</td> <td>4:48.11</td> <td>2012 Japan National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tanaka, Mizuho</td> <td>F</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>259</td> <td>291.18</td> <td>4.76</td> <td>1.63</td> <td>0.00631</td> <td>18.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:51.18</td> <td>National Games - Swimming Competition</td> <td>4:46.42</td> <td>Japan Open 2012</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Suvorau, Yury</td> <td>M</td> <td>BLR</td> <td>390</td> <td>267.71</td> <td>6.36</td> <td>2.37</td> <td>0.00609</td> <td>21.36</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:27.71</td> <td>2011 Open Champ of Belarus</td> <td>4:21.35</td> <td>European Swimming Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Satou, Gou</td> <td>M</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>213</td> <td>271.41</td> <td>3.46</td> <td>1.27</td> <td>0.00598</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:31.41</td> <td>Japan Inter-College Swimming Competition</td> <td>4:27.95</td> <td>2012 Japan National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Weiss, Michael</td> <td>M</td> <td>USA</td> <td>328</td> <td>261.35</td> <td>5.04</td> <td>1.92</td> <td>0.00587</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:21.35</td> <td>2011 Conoco Phillips National Championships</td> <td>4:16.31</td> <td>USA Olympic Team Trials</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gilliland, Jared</td> <td>M</td> <td>AUS</td> <td>298</td> <td>270.15</td> <td>4.66</td> <td>1.72</td> <td>0.00578</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:30.15</td> <td>XLIV Santa Clara International</td> <td>4:25.49</td> <td>2012 Australian Age Champs</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kron, Kristian</td> <td>M</td> <td>SWE</td> <td>364</td> <td>271.52</td> <td>5.47</td> <td>2.01</td> <td>0.00553</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:31.52</td> <td>Swedish Championships</td> <td>4:26.05</td> <td>Swedish Championships 2012</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Le Clos, Chad</td> <td>M</td> <td>RSA</td> <td>327</td> <td>256.88</td> <td>4.64</td> <td>1.8</td> <td>0.00552</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:16.88</td> <td>10th All African Games - Maputo 2011</td> <td>4:12.24</td> <td>2012 Olympic Games</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Fraser-Holmes, Thomas</td> <td>M</td> <td>AUS</td> <td>349</td> <td>256.75</td> <td>4.94</td> <td>1.92</td> <td>0.00551</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:16.75</td> <td>2011 Telstra Australian Swimming Championships</td> <td>4:11.81</td> <td>2012 EnergyAustralia Swimming</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Evans, Blair</td> <td>F</td> <td>AUS</td> <td>301</td> <td>280.86</td> <td>4.65</td> <td>1.65</td> <td>0.0055</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:40.86</td> <td>2011 Telstra Australian Swimming Championships</td> <td>4:36.21</td> <td>South Australian State Open Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Adams, Cammile</td> <td>F</td> <td>USA</td> <td>304</td> <td>282.99</td> <td>4.72</td> <td>1.66</td> <td>0.00548</td> <td>20.906</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:42.99</td> <td>2011 Conoco Phillips National Championships</td> <td>4:38.27</td> <td>2012 ST TXLA Elite Invite</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tikhonov, Alexander</td> <td>M</td> <td>RUS</td> <td>318</td> <td>259.73</td> <td>4.49</td> <td>1.72</td> <td>0.00543</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:19.73</td> <td>2011 Barcelona Mare Nostrum</td> <td>4:15.24</td> <td>Russian National Swimming Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Fujino, Maiko</td> <td>F</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>359</td> <td>283.97</td> <td>5.42</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>0.00531</td> <td>29.2</td> <td>1.61</td> <td>57</td> <td>4:43.97</td> <td>2011 International Competition Selection Trial</td> <td>4:38.55</td> <td>2012 Japan National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Hagino, Kosuke</td> <td>M</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>435</td> <td>254.58</td> <td>5.64</td> <td>2.21</td> <td>0.00509</td> <td>17.98</td> <td>1.75</td> <td>70</td> <td>4:14.58</td> <td>2011 Japan Open</td> <td>4:08.94</td> <td>2012 Olympic Games</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Muir, Ross</td> <td>M</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>399</td> <td>264.23</td> <td>5.13</td> <td>1.94</td> <td>0.00486</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:24.23</td> <td>British Gas ASA National Championships</td> <td>4:19.10</td> <td>British Gas Nat Youth MC Chmps 2012</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Oldershaw, Marni</td> <td>F</td> <td>CAN</td> <td>363</td> <td>291.56</td> <td>5.07</td> <td>1.73</td> <td>0.00479</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:51.56</td> <td>World Trials</td> <td>4:46.49</td> <td>2012 Canadian Olympic and Paralympic Trials</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stevens, Leah</td> <td>F</td> <td>USA</td> <td>405</td> <td>295.04</td> <td>5.62</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>0.0047</td> <td>15.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:55.04</td> <td>2011 SE NAC Summer Sizzler</td> <td>4:49.42</td> <td>2012 ST TXLA American LC Champ</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stitski, Monika</td> <td>F</td> <td>CAN</td> <td>323</td> <td>295.23</td> <td>4.45</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>0.00466</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:55.23</td> <td>2011 IA Speedo Champions Series - CZ Section 1</td> <td>4:50.78</td> <td>2012 Mutual of Omaha Swimvitational</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Marin, Luca</td> <td>M</td> <td>ITA</td> <td>428</td> <td>257.04</td> <td></td> <td>1.94</td> <td>0.00454</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:17.04</td> <td>Italian Spring National Championships</td> <td>4:12.04</td> <td>49th Sette Colli Trophy</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Brandon, Bonnie</td> <td>F</td> <td>USA</td> <td>347</td> <td>293.81</td> <td>4.61</td> <td>1.56</td> <td>0.00452</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:53.81</td> <td>2011 CA Los Angeles Invitational</td> <td>4:49.20</td> <td>USA Olympic Team Trials</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wallburger, Tim</td> <td>M</td> <td>GER</td> <td>388</td> <td>264.05</td> <td>4.63</td> <td>1.75</td> <td>0.00451</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:24.05</td> <td>2011 German open</td> <td>4:19.42</td> <td>Qualification for European Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Martynova, Yana</td> <td>F</td> <td>RUS</td> <td>365</td> <td>283.24</td> <td>4.55</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>0.0044</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:43.24</td> <td>Russian National Championships</td> <td>4:38.69</td> <td>Russian National Swimming Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tranter, Daniel</td> <td>M</td> <td>AUS</td> <td>398</td> <td>260.84</td> <td>4.46</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>0.00429</td> <td>20.6</td> <td>1.93</td> <td>80</td> <td>4:20.84</td> <td>2011 New South Wales Open Champs</td> <td>4:16.38</td> <td>2012 EnergyAustralia Swimming</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><a href="http://meng6net.localhost/data/great_performace_improver.dsv">Direct data download</a></p> <h2><a id="betterimprover"></a>Swimmers who gained better performance improvement than Ye Shiwen over the 2011-2012 period</h2> <table class="datatable"> <thead> <tr> <th>name</th> <th>sex</th> <th>country</th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/42fad965ba7dfb7e60ef99fc8a717018.png" alt="d\tau" class="teximg" /></th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/6f122f7506b976f9e706f8be26adf231.png" alt="t_{2011}" class="teximg" /></th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/af8d360a561bdcaf6871965aa84ed849.png" alt="d t" class="teximg" /></th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/a938f64e4978de8d515a65f34823b376.png" alt="\delta t" class="teximg" /></th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/b759049e2e7e0d944075bc4d00cfc641.png" alt="\delta t'" class="teximg" /></th> <th>age</th> <th>height</th> <th>weight</th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/6f122f7506b976f9e706f8be26adf231.png" alt="t_{2011}" class="teximg" /></th> <th>2011 best performance</th> <th><img src= "http://meng6net.localhost/project/Analysis_of_short-term_performance_improvement_of_top_swimmers_in_400m_individual_medley/daf352a58d6b546067a39066ed1a8812.png" alt="t_{2012}" class="teximg" /></th> <th>2012 best performance</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>Trombetti, Luisa</td> <td>F</td> <td>ITA</td> <td>81</td> <td>293.7</td> <td>5.9</td> <td></td> <td>0.0248</td> <td>19.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:53.70</td> <td>Italian Open Winter Nationals 2011</td> <td>4:47.80</td> <td>Italian National Spring Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Rousseau, Sebastien</td> <td>M</td> <td>RSA</td> <td>157</td> <td>266.95</td> <td>9.12</td> <td>3.41</td> <td>0.0217</td> <td>21.9</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>80</td> <td>4:26.95</td> <td>Minneapolis Grand Prix</td> <td>4:17.83</td> <td>Sa National Aquatic Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Meyer, Michael</td> <td>M</td> <td>RSA</td> <td>136</td> <td>263.87</td> <td>7.45</td> <td>2.82</td> <td>0.0207</td> <td>24.66</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:23.87</td> <td>Open Dutch Championships</td> <td>4:16.42</td> <td>Sa National Aquatic Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Chen, Xinyi</td> <td>F</td> <td>CHN</td> <td>167</td> <td>289.95</td> <td>8.94</td> <td>3.08</td> <td>0.0184</td> <td>14.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:49.95</td> <td>7th National City Games 2011</td> <td>4:41.01</td> <td>National Swimming Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mann, Becca</td> <td>F</td> <td>USA</td> <td>227</td> <td>290.17</td> <td>8.56</td> <td>2.94</td> <td>0.0129</td> <td>14.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:50.17</td> <td>Minneapolis Grand Prix</td> <td>4:41.61</td> <td>USA Olympic Team Trials</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Seltenreich-Hodgson, Erika</td> <td>F</td> <td>CAN</td> <td>311</td> <td>294.3</td> <td>10.5</td> <td>3.56</td> <td>0.0114</td> <td>17.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:54.30</td> <td>2011 Canadian Age Group Championships</td> <td>4:43.80</td> <td>Mare Nostrum</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Coton, Quentin</td> <td>M</td> <td>FRA</td> <td>241</td> <td>268.85</td> <td>6.63</td> <td>2.46</td> <td>0.0102</td> <td>21.04</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:28.85</td> <td>Summer Nationals</td> <td>4:22.22</td> <td>Elite French Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Beraud, Romain</td> <td>M</td> <td>FRA</td> <td>241</td> <td>270.91</td> <td>6.53</td> <td>2.41</td> <td>0.01</td> <td>23.98</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:30.91</td> <td>Youth Senior Open Championships</td> <td>4:24.38</td> <td>Elite French Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tutumi, Takahiro</td> <td>M</td> <td>JPN</td> <td>213</td> <td>265.35</td> <td>5.47</td> <td>2.06</td> <td>0.00967</td> <td>19.9</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:25.35</td> <td>Japan Inter-College Swimming Competition</td> <td>4:19.88</td> <td>2012 Japan National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Siwicki, Breanne</td> <td>F</td> <td>CAN</td> <td>250</td> <td>293.79</td> <td>7.01</td> <td>2.38</td> <td>0.00954</td> <td>17.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:53.79</td> <td>Summer Nationals</td> <td>4:46.78</td> <td>2012 Canadian Olympic and Paralympic Trials</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Wedel, Kevin</td> <td>M</td> <td>GER</td> <td>309</td> <td>268.84</td> <td>7.64</td> <td>2.84</td> <td>0.00919</td> <td>18.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:28.84</td> <td>38th European Junior Championships 2011</td> <td>4:21.20</td> <td>124th German Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Soerensen, Katrine</td> <td>F</td> <td>DEN</td> <td>245</td> <td>293.96</td> <td>6.58</td> <td>2.23</td> <td>0.00913</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:53.96</td> <td>Summer Nationals</td> <td>4:47.38</td> <td>Danish Open</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Mann, Karley</td> <td>F</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>356</td> <td>294.94</td> <td>9.3</td> <td>3.15</td> <td>0.00885</td> <td>18.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:54.94</td> <td>British Gas ASA Youth Champs 2011</td> <td>4:45.64</td> <td>British Gas Nat Youth MC Chmps 2012</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Glavnyk, Iryna</td> <td>F</td> <td>UKR</td> <td>238</td> <td>294.7</td> <td>6.21</td> <td>2.1</td> <td>0.00885</td> <td>16.24</td> <td>1.74</td> <td>58</td> <td>4:54.70</td> <td>38th European Junior Championships 2011</td> <td>4:48.49</td> <td>Open Ukrainian National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Lowe, Danielle</td> <td>F</td> <td>GBR</td> <td>356</td> <td>295.9</td> <td>9.1</td> <td>3.07</td> <td>0.00863</td> <td>17.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:55.90</td> <td>British Gas ASA Youth Champs 2011</td> <td>4:46.80</td> <td>British Gas Nat Youth MC Chmps 2012</td> </tr> <tr> <td>McKee, Anton Sveinn</td> <td>M</td> <td>ISL</td> <td>281</td> <td>270.15</td> <td>6.51</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>0.00857</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:30.15</td> <td>38th European Junior Championships 2011</td> <td>4:23.64</td> <td>Icelandic National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Persson, Erik</td> <td>M</td> <td>SWE</td> <td>260</td> <td>271.82</td> <td>5.86</td> <td>2.15</td> <td>0.00829</td> <td>18.6</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:31.82</td> <td>38th European Junior Championships 2011</td> <td>4:25.96</td> <td>Danish Open</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Kochetkova, Kristina</td> <td>F</td> <td>RUS</td> <td>261</td> <td>294.48</td> <td>6.08</td> <td>2.06</td> <td>0.00791</td> <td>19.52</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:54.48</td> <td>Russian National Swimming Cup</td> <td>4:48.40</td> <td>International Meeting</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Gyurta, Gergely</td> <td>M</td> <td>HUN</td> <td>281</td> <td>261.9</td> <td>5.34</td> <td>2.03</td> <td>0.00725</td> <td>20.903</td> <td>1.74</td> <td>68</td> <td>4:21.90</td> <td>CXIII Hungarian Swimming Championship</td> <td>4:16.56</td> <td>Open National Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Schepers, Jan David</td> <td>M</td> <td>GER</td> <td>282</td> <td>264.71</td> <td>5.24</td> <td>1.97</td> <td>0.00701</td> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> <td>4:24.71</td> <td>German Championships</td> <td>4:19.47</td> <td>Qualification for European Championships</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vanderkaay, Peter</td> <td>M</td> <td>USA</td> <td>398</td> <td>263.28</td> <td>7.06</td> <td>2.68</td> <td>0.00673</td> <td>28.48</td> <td>1.93</td> <td>90</td> <td>4:23.28</td> <td>2011 Michigan Grand Prix</td> <td>4:16.22</td> <td>2012 NC Charlotte UltraSwim</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Ye, Shiwen</td> <td>F</td> <td>CHN</td> <td>285</td> <td>273.66</td> <td>5.23</td> <td>1.91</td> <td>0.0067</td> <td>16.27</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>45</td> <td>4:33.66</td> <td>7th National City Games 2011</td> <td>4:28.43</td> <td>2012 Olympic Games</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><a href= "http://meng6net.localhost/data/better_performace_improver_than_Ye.dsv">Direct data download</a></p> <h2>References</h2> <ul> <li> <p>[1] Ewen Callaway, Why great Olympic feats raise suspicions, http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109</p> </li> <li> <p>[2] FINA, "Swimming World Rankings" data base, http://www.fina.org/H2O/index.php?option=com_wrapper&amp;view=wrapper&amp;Itemid=805</p> </li> </ul> Nature publishes substandard article 'Oympic feats raise suspicion' by Ewen Callaway http://meng6net.localhost/blog/Nature_publishes_substandard_article___39__Oympic_feats_raise_suspicion__39___by_Ewen_Callaway/ http://meng6net.localhost/blog/Nature_publishes_substandard_article___39__Oympic_feats_raise_suspicion__39___by_Ewen_Callaway/ blog news olympics society Tue, 16 May 2017 23:59:39 +0000 2017-05-16T23:59:39Z <p>The prestigious scientific magazine Nature published a news report titled <a href= "http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109"> 'Oympic feats raise suspicion'</a> by Ewen Callaway (<a href= "http://meng6net.localhost/[https://twitter.com/ewencallaway">@ewencallaway</a>), which talked about 16-year-old Chinese Olympic gold medalist swimmer <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ye_Shiwen">Ye Shiwen</a>, and says</p> <blockquote> <p>... how an athlete's performance history and the limits of human physiology could be used to catch dopers ...</p> <p>Was Ye’s performance anomalous?<br /> Yes. Her time in the 400 IM was more than 7 seconds faster than her time in the same event at a major meet in July 2011. But what really raised eyebrows was her showing in the last 50 metres, which she swam faster than US swimmer Ryan Lochte did when he won gold in the men’s 400 IM on Saturday, with the second-fastest time ever for that event. ...</p> <p>Doesn't a clean drug test during competition rule out the possibility of doping?<br /> No, says Ross Tucker, ...</p> </blockquote> <p>Other than this fact-lacking and logically flawed weak reasoning, there is not much data or scientific analysis in this report. It seems a rather substandard article for Nature, especially on a potentially controversial topic. One of the reader comments was particularly well-ground criticism on it:</p> <blockquote> <p>Lai Jiang said:</p> <p>It is a shame to see Nature, which nearly all scientists, including myself, regard as the one of the most prestigious and influential physical science magazines to publish a thinly-veiled biased article like this. Granted, this is not a peer-reviewed scientific article and did not go through the scrutiny of picking referees. But to serve as a channel for the general populous to be in touch with and appreciate sciences, the authors and editors should at least present the readers with facts within proper context , which they failed to do blatantly.</p> <p>First, to compare a player's performance increase, the author used Ye's 400m IM time and her performance at the World championship 2011, which are 4:28. 43 and 4:35.15 respectively, and reached the conclusion that she has got an "anomalous" increase by ~7 sec (6.72 sec). In fact she's previous personal best was 4:33.79 at Asian Games 2010 [1]. This leads to a 5.38 sec increase. In a sport event that 0.1 sec can be the difference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason that 5.38 sec can be treated as 7 sec.</p> <p>Second, as previously pointed out, Ye is only 16 years old and her body is still developing. Bettering oneself by 5 sec over two years may seem impossible for an adult swimmer, but certainly happens among youngsters. Ian Thorpe's interview revealed that his 400m freestyle time increased 5 sec between the age of 15 and 16 [2]. For regular people including the author it may be hard to imagine what an elite swimmer can achieve as he or she matures, combined with scientific and persistent training. But jumping to a conclusion that it is "anomalous" based on "Oh that's so tough I can not imagine it is real" is hardly sound.</p> <p>Third, to compare Ryan Lochte's last 50m to Ye's is a textbook example of what we call to cherry pick your data. Yes, Lochte is slower than Ye in the last 50m, but (as pointed out by Zhenxi) Lochte has a huge lead in the first 300m so that he chose to not push himself too hard to conserve energy for latter events (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the "use one' s best efforts to win a match" requirement that the BWF has recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another topic worth discussing, probably not in Nature, though). On the contrary, Ye is trailing behind after the first 300m and relies on freestyle, which she has an edge, to win the game. Failing to mention this strategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 sec faster (4:05.18) over all than Ye creates the illusion that a woman swam faster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Put aside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that implies the reader that something fishy is going on.</p> <p>Fourth, another example of cherry picking. In the same event there are four male swimmers that swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 sec) [3] and Ye (28.93 sec) [4]: Hagino (28.52 sec), Phelps (28.44 sec), Horihata (27.87 sec) and Fraser-Holmes (28.35 sec). As it turns out if we are just talking about the last 50m in a 400m IM, Lochter would not have been the example to use if I were the author. What kind of scientific rigorousness that author is trying to demonstrate here? Is it logical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume he leads in every split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science works.</p> <p>Fifth, which is the one I oppose the most. The author quotes Tucks and implies that a drug test can not rule out the possibility of doping. Is this kind of agnosticism what Nature really wants to educate its readers? By that standard I estimate that at least half of the peer-reviewed scientific papers in Nature should be retracted. How can one convince the editors and reviewers that their proposed theory works for every possible case? One cannot. One chooses to apply the theory to typical examples and demonstrate that in (hopefully) all scenarios considered the theory works to a degree, and that should warrant a publication, until a counterexample is found. I could imagine that the author has a skeptical mind which is critical to scientific thinking, but that would be put into better use if he can write a real peer-reviewed paper that discusses the odds of Ye doping on a highly advanced non-detectable drug that the Chinese has come up within the last 4 years (they obviously did not have it in Beijing, otherwise why not to use it and woo the audience at home?), based on data and rational derivation. This paper, however, can be interpreted as saying that all athletes are doping, and the authorities are just not good enough to catch them. That may be true, logically, but definitely will not make the case if there is ever a hearing by FINA to determine if Ye has doped. To ask the question that if it is possible to false negative in a drug test looks like a rigged question to me. Of course it is, other than the drug that the test is not designed to detect, anyone who has taken Quantum 101 will tell you that everything is probabilistic in nature, and there is a probability for the drug in an athlete's system to tunnel out right at the moment of the test. A slight change as it may be, should we disregard all test results because of it? Let's be practical and reasonable. And accept WADA is competent at its job. Her urine sample is stored for 8 years following the contest for future testing as technology advances. Innocent until proven guilty, shouldn't it be?</p> <p>Sixth, and the last point I would like to make, is that the out-of- competition drug test is already in effect, which the author failed to mention. Per WADA president's press release [5], drug testing for olympians began at least 6 months prior to the opening of the London Olympic. Furthermore there are 107 athletes who are banned from this Olympic for doping. That maybe the reason that everyone will pass at the Olympic games. Hardly anyone fails in competition testing? Because those who did dope are already sanctioned? The author is free to suggest that a player could have doped beforehand and fool the test at the game, but this possibility certainly is ruled out for Ye.</p> <p>Over all, even though the author did not falsify any data, he did ( intentionally or not) cherry pick data that is far too suggestive to be fair and unbiased, in my view. If you want to cover a story of a suspected doping from a scientific point of view, be impartial and provide all the facts for the reader to judge. You are entitled to your interpretation of the facts, and the expression thereof in your piece, explicitly or otherwise , but only showing evidences which favor your argument is hardly good science or journalism. Such an article in a journal like Nature is not an appropriate example of how scientific research or report should be done.</p> <p>1 http://www.fina.org/H2O/index.php?option=com_wrapper&amp;view=wrapper&amp;Itemid=1241<br /> 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ETPUKlOwV4<br /> 3 http://www.london2012.com/swimming/event/men-400m-individual-medley/phase=swm054100/index.html<br /> 4 http://www.london2012.com/swimming/event/women-400m-individual-medley/phase=sww054100/index.html<br /> 5 http://playtrue.wada-ama.org/news/wada-presidents-addresses-london-2012-press-conference/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=wada-presidents-addresses-london-2012-press-conference</p> </blockquote> <p>How well said!</p> /blog/Nature_publishes_substandard_article___39__Oympic_feats_raise_suspicion__39___by_Ewen_Callaway/#comments 钓鱼岛及其部分附属岛屿图 http://meng6net.localhost/blog/%E9%92%93%E9%B1%BC%E5%B2%9B%E5%8F%8A%E5%85%B6%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%E9%99%84%E5%B1%9E%E5%B2%9B%E5%B1%BF%E5%9B%BE/ http://meng6net.localhost/blog/%E9%92%93%E9%B1%BC%E5%B2%9B%E5%8F%8A%E5%85%B6%E9%83%A8%E5%88%86%E9%99%84%E5%B1%9E%E5%B2%9B%E5%B1%BF%E5%9B%BE/ china data geography map news Tue, 16 May 2017 23:59:39 +0000 2017-05-16T23:59:39Z <p>根据中国国家海洋局2012年9月16日公布坐标<a href= "http://www.soa.gov.cn/soa/news/importantnews/webinfo/2012/09/1347338538857746.htm">数据</a>, 画了<a href="http://meng6.net/pages/project/diaoyu_islands/map/">《钓鱼岛及其部分附属岛屿图》</a>。</p> /blog/钓鱼岛及其部分附属岛屿图/#comments